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Technological change in MESSAGE is generally treated exogenously, although pioneering work on the endogenization of technological change in energy-engineering type models has been done with MESSAGE (Messner, 1997). The current cost and performance parameters, including conversion efficiencies and emission coefficients is generally derived from the relevant engineering literature. For the future alternative cost and performance projections are usually developed to cover a relatively wide range of uncertainties that influences model results to a good extent. As an example, Figure 2.1 below provides an overview of costs ranges for a set of key energy conversion technologies as developed in the Global Energy Assessment (GEA) and applied in MESSAGE. More detailed techno-economic assumptions can be found used in MESSAGE V.4 can be found in the GEA scenario database.


Figure 2.1: Investment cost per unit of energy production capacity (van Vliet et al., 2012).

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