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Heavy industry model – Steel and Cement-

The demand for raw materials can be described as a function of per capita income levels (Groenenberg, 2002; Neelis and Patel, 2006; Roberts, 1996; Tilton, 1996; van Vuuren et al., 1999). Empirically, it has been observed that the general form for resource intensity often follows an inverted U-shaped curve. The inverted U shape can be explained in terms of superposition of three different trends: transition, substitution and technological development (van Vuuren et al., 1999). There are a number of possible formal descriptions that can be chosen that are able to describe an inverted U-shape. Based on discussion in Roorda (2006) and Neelis and Patel (2006) we here use:


-          GDPpc = Gross Domestic Product per capita (2005 PPP$)[1|file:///Y:/ontwapps/Timer/ADVANCE/model%20documentation/WIKI/WIKItemplate.docx#_ftn1]

-          α = Maximum total consumption per capita (PCC) and


The cement production model includes four technologies:

  1. Wiki Markup
    Standard dry feed rotary kiln\[[2]\|file:///Y:/ontwapps/Timer/ADVANCE/model%20documentation/WIKI/WIKItemplate.docx#_ftn2\]
  2. Wiki Markup
    Efficient dry feed rotary kiln\[[3]\|file:///Y:/ontwapps/Timer/ADVANCE/model%20documentation/WIKI/WIKItemplate.docx#_ftn3\]
  3. Efficient dry feed kiln with on-site-CCS
  4. Efficient dry feed kiln with oxy-combustion CCS

Wiki Markup
\[[2]\|file:///Y:/ontwapps/Timer/ADVANCE/model%20documentation/WIKI/WIKItemplate.docx#_ftnref2\] This means: a raw mill, a pre-heater, a pre-calciner, a rotary kiln and a cooler, with simple exhaust heat recovery and fuel preparation.

Wiki Markup
\[[3]\|file:///Y:/ontwapps/Timer/ADVANCE/model%20documentation/WIKI/WIKItemplate.docx#_ftnref3\] As standard, but also with: improved process and fuel control systems, more efficient pre-heaters and pre calciners and an improved cooling/heat recovery system.