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  • Modelling of climate indicators - MESSAGE

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The MESSAGE modeling framework makes use of the MAGICC global climate model. MAGICC stands for the "Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change." It is a reduced-complexity coupled global climate-carbon cycle model in the form of a user-friendly software package that runs on a personal computer (Wigley 2008). In its standard form, MAGICC calculates internally consistent projections for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, global annual-mean surface air temperature and other metrics, given emissions trajectories of a range of gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, NOx, VOCs, SO2, and various halocarbons, including HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6), all of which are outputs from MESSAGE. The time horizon of MAGICC extends as far back as 1750 and can make projections as far forward as 2400. The climate model in MAGICC is an upwelling-diffusion, energy-balance model, which produces output for global- and hemispheric-mean temperature and for oceanic thermal expansion. Climate feedbacks on the global carbon cycle are accounted for through the interactive coupling of the climate model and a range of gas-cycle models. As of mid-2013, version 5.3 of MAGICC is being used in conjunction with MESSAGE. This version is consistent with the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Working Group 1, except that the model has been slightly modified to permit the explicit treatment of black and organic carbon (BC and OC) and their impacts on the global climate. (The MESSAGE team gratefully acknowledges Dr. Steve Smith of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (USA) for sharing a modified version of MAGICC (v5.3), which explicitly takes user-specified trajectories of BC and OC as inputs.)