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Behavioral change in MESSAGE-Access

MESSAGE-Access is a least-cost optimization variant of the MESSAGE model that provides a detailed representation of energy use for the residential sector in developing country regions. It is fully integrated with the MESSAGE supply side model, but not in call scenarios is the the detailed demand-side representation used, but instead a more aggregated formulation with just seven demand categories is used (see Demand - MESSAGE) which is parametrized off the detailed MESSAGE-Access formulation. The objective function maximizes household utility by choosing an energy-equipment combination for an individual household group that meets a particular energy service demand at lowest cost. The model is calibrated with data on existing household energy use patterns, derived from national household surveys and energy statistics and balances for the base year 2005. Assumptions regarding urbanization, income growth and changes in income distributions over time drive the model outcomes in the future. In its current version the model is implemented only for 3 of the 11 MESSAGE regions, SAS, PAS and AFR, that are developing regions where access to modern energy remains the most limited.